Breeders Cup Classic: An Inside Look

After the terrible news Thursday morning that champion Beholder would have to scratch, This seems to be American Phaorah's race to lose. Let's take a look at the field for this years Classic:

1. Tonalist- He seems to do his best running at Belmont Park where he defeated last years Triple Crown hopeful California Chrome. Looked strong again in Gold Cup but still question his ability outside Belmont Park. 10-1 or higher would be the only play on this one.

2. Keen Ice- The only horse to defeat American Phaorah this season. This horse could be the play if the pace sets up like the Travers but with the scratch of Beholder, where will the pace come from besides American Phaorah? He will be below 20-1 and I do not like him under that price.

3. Frosted- He was the pace in the Travers that pushed American Pharoah to defeat. I believe that Rosario getting injured that day changed how the race was run and the outcome would have been different if Rosario was on board. He will be bet here and I believe that Rosario will sit right off the Triple Crown winner and take his shot turning for home, 8-1 seems pretty solid for this one.

4. American Phaorah- The Triple Crown winner tasted defeat at Saratoga but I believe ran the best race that day with everything up against him. With no other early pace, he should get the lead quite easily and have the lead turning for home. My wallet might be against him but he should be very tough in this spot.

5. Gleneagles- This is my wildcard horse and for multiple reasons: 1. I respect the trainer and owner for the path to get to this point and 2. Has been solid despite his last effort. My only question would be the distance but with a price tag of over 15-1, it's hard to argue.

6. Effinex- Has been solid all year but the last two races are something of a concern. Some excuses but has been a no show against the same competition in last two. 50-1 seems right for him.

7. Smooth Roller- He is very lightly raced, seems to be the only other early speed in this race but impressed in the Awesome Again. Look for this one to be sitting with the group just outside American Phaorah as the hit the far turn where the distance question will be answered.

8. Hard Aces- Got in after impressive win in the Gold Cup and Santa Anita. Up against it with this field, not using on any tickets.

9. Honor Code- Looked great over the summer in New York capturing the Met Mile and the Whitney. Have to question Shug for the prep in the Kelso, horse did not look interested at all and merely looked like a public workout. Has come back training strong and will be flying late. 6-1 seems to be the right price here.

10. Beholder- Glad to hear that it is nothing serious but a tough loss for a race that set up to be one of the best ever.

Make sure to check out 1045theteam.com for all updates and picks for Breeders Cup 2015. Follow me on Twitter @1045Mariano.