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The Kentucky Derby: An Amateur’s Updated Predictions

Uncle Mo has been ruled out of the Kentucky Derby.  It’s a sad day for the first leg of the triple crown.  It was shaping up nicely, with four or five really quality horses that would all be fighting down to the wire.  Now, the race’s biggest name is out; but the race might have just gotten better.

Matthew Stockman, Getty Images

To me, a healthy Uncle Mo hits the wire first on Saturday.  Sure, he would have had to fight off challenges from Dialed in and Nehro, but I think he would have taken the race.  However, now the race seems a little more wide open.  I think (‘cause Lord knows I don’t know anything) I expect the raw talent of Dialed In to ultimately take the roses, but it will be tough.  Midnight Interlude and Nehro will certainly be a factor.  As will Mucho Macho Man and Soldat, two horses I expect to be near the lead the entire race.  In the end I expect them to be over taken by an early move from Dialed In and Nehro.  The late run of the race will almost certainly come from the two Brilliant Speed and Archarcharch, a horse that I don’t expect to be hurt by the dreaded number one post. He’s the better of those two and I think he’ll settle in deep in the pack early and have almost the entire race to get himself into position.  I look for Archarcharch to show an incredibly strong kick from thunder deep in the field and make a Mine That Bird-esq rally to make the money.  As I said in my last article, ultimately I see it:

1.Dialed In

2. Midnight Interlude

3. Nehro

4. Archarcharch

Though rethinking it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arch ride the momentum to as high up as a place.  If I’m looking for a good money bet to win, I look at Mucho Macho Man, Archarcharch and Soldat.  Also, expect Santiva to be close to the money and have a real shot at at least a show.  Ultimately, I think I’d box Dialed In, Midnight Interlude and Archarcharch as a good money bet, with maybe a second bet involving Nehro.  Then, depending on the odds for Santiva at post time, bet him to show.

Though who’s to say any of this is correct.  Horse racing is such a fickle sport, one bad step could throw the whole race out of whack and I AM BY NO MEANS AN EXPERT – REPEAT: NOT AN EXPERT.  This years field is as wide open as I’ve seen, especially now with it’s most accomplished horse out.  Look for a great Derby Saturday afternoon.

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