We're back for 'Locks of the Week' in week three after some valuable lessons learned in week two. As the season progresses, we find out who is here to stay, and who has perhaps fooled us throughout the first two weeks of action. We got back in the winning column last week, but now we aim for the ever sought ever perfect week.

Season Record: 4-5-1, 44.4 W/L%

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints, 1:00, FOX

On Fridays ‘Locks of the Week’ segment, I had declared this my first game of the year pick of the 2024 season. The Eagles are off a devastating last minute loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football, where they allowed Bijan Robinson to dominate on the ground, and Kirk Cousins to wipe out any doubt we may have had about his regression in one swoop. Philly will be without their top receiving target A.J. Brown again in this one, and the splits on Jalen Hurts as a quarterback with and without him are probably worse than you’d imagine. Hurts with Brown in the lineup averages 279.9 total yards, and 2.1 total touchdowns. Without Brown, the Philly signal caller is at just 179.4 yards per game, and 1.1 scores a contest. While it’s only been two weeks of NFL action, the Saints have been far and away the most efficient team in football. They’ve completely revamped their offense into one that incorporates motion, as a staple of the design. They have the largest increases in motion (plus-38 percent) and play-action usages (plus-11 percent) in the NFL this season. It's certainly been effective so far. The Saints are averaging 7.9 yards per play with motion and 4.5 without it this year. Plus, they are at 12.5 yards per attempt with play action, and 9.4 without it. The Eagles defense will have their hands full with a team that just dropped 44 on their divisional rival Cowboys, and with no A.J. Brown, I truly can’t envision them keeping up today.

PICK: Saints -3 (Pick made with Friday lines)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:00, CBS

Much like my New York Jets, when watching the Chargers this season, it doesn’t even feel remotely similar to what we have seen in the past. They’ve outscored opponents 48-13 in two contests thus far, and done so in a fashion that we are not accustomed to seeing. They’ve relied heavily on the explosiveness of free agent signing J.K. Dobbins, who’s averaging 9.9 YPC in two weeks of play. The Steelers implied team total is 17.5 today, based on the over under and spread. In 18 matchups with Justin Herbert as the QB, the Bolts are undefeated when they allow less than 20 points. This pick was made under the assumption that Justin Herbert will play in this one, despite the high ankle sprain. LA will rely heavily on Dobbins early, and will be able to subdue an at best average offensive attack from the Steelers.

PICK: Chargers +1.5 (Pick made with Friday lines)

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals, 4:25, FOX

How about these Arizona Cardinals! After an extremely competitive week one loss at Buffalo, they beat the breaks off the Rams last weekend. Kyler Murray has reminded us just how much of a special player he is, and had the best game of his professional career. While Murray has always dealt with less than stellar line play, this is probably the best set of weapons he’s had since being a Cardinal. Marvin Harrison Jr. quickly shut down any foolish “bust” talks last Sunday, by going for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the very first quarter. Now, Arizona gets a Detroit team off a loss at home to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. While Jared Goff looks like a league MVP when he plays at home, his road splits are shockingly unimpressive. The QB has a 10-12-1 record away from Ford Field, averaging just 245 yards, and a touchdown per game. I’ll take Arizona here as a home dog, and Kyler Murray to continue to remind people of his immense talent.

PICK: Cardinals +3

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills, 7:30, ESPN (MNF)

These Buffalo Bills have looked pretty dang good in their opening games of the season. It’s wild to think this offense used to be solely reliant on the heroics of quarterback Josh Allen, but at last, he has something to lean on: a strong rush attack. The emergence of James Cook was something that fans of the team waited on for years, and it’s safe to say it’s arrived. Buffalo has been able to take some of the pressure off of Allen’s shoulders, and in the process have become a more efficient offense. Jacksonville on the other hand, has been a major disappointment. Trevor Lawrence has lost seven straight starts, with ten touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Jags did get the best of Buffalo in London last season, but I expect Buffalo to dominate time of possession on Monday night, en route to a comfortable victory.

PICK: Bills -5 (Pick made with Friday lines)

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15, ABC (MNF)

Week three concludes with the last of two Monday Night Football games on the slate. Joe Burrow and the Bengals were a pass interference call away from storming into Arrowhead stadium as six point underdogs and taking down the defending Super Bowl champions. Now, they’re back at home against a Washington Commanders defense that has us thinking Daniel Jones may actually not be that bad. While Washington did pick up a win in that one, this is an extremely tall task for rookie signal caller Jayden Daniels, who all things considered, has looked relatively impressive through his first two starts. However, this is a Bengals defense that held Mahomes to just over 150 yards passing, while forcing two interceptions. Burrow and the Bengals will likely steamroll one of the league's worst defenses on Monday, and I smell the first monster game of the season for Ja’Marr Chase, with Tee Higgins back in the lineup as well.

PICK: Bengals -7

BONUS PLAYER PROPS

Season Record: 5-5, 50 W/L%

J.K. Dobbins O 56.5 rushing yards @PIT

• Chargers will want to lean heavily on Dobbins with Herbert's high ankle sprain
• Dobbins has easily surpassed this number in two games this year
• Expect at the very least 12-15 attempts for Dobbins

Chris Olave O 5.5 receptions vs. PHI

• Terrific matchup with an uninspiring Eagles secondary
• Will likely win time of possession battle in this game
• With Carr dealing, he has been due for a blowup game

Tank Dell O 3.5 receptions @MIN

• No Mixon for Houston, will likely rely more on the pass
• Will likely be more involved in the short passing game
• Hit this number in four consecutive games to close out 2023

Trey Mcbride O 5.5 receptions vs. DET

• Detroit top ten in yards allowed to tight end in 2023
• Expect a high scoring contest, with largest O/U on the Sunday slate
• Hit this number in seven of ten games with Kyler Murray at QB

Joe Burrow O 1.5 passing TD's vs. WAS

• Looked healthy last week against a stout Chiefs defense
• Commanders allowed 2.3 Pass TD's a game last season
• Run game has looked stagnant, will put more of an emphasis on getting Chase and Higgins going in this one

All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook