NFL MVP Race Heads into Final Month of Games with No Clear Favorite. Here are Two Longshots to Consider.

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If you are someone that likes to wait to see how a specific betting market is going to shape up, the NFL Most Valuable Player Award odds might be the race for you this season.

It seems to be a three-horse race at the three-quarters pole, with no clear favorite as we start the final charge to the finish line for the 2023 season. 

A few weeks ago, this MVP market was between slight favorite Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles, and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

And while the US top betting apps still favor those three names, there are a few interesting, very valuable plays to consider. Currently, it's just Hurts (+250), Jackson (+350), and Mahomes (+400) as the heavy betting favorites at the betMGM in New Jersey.  

So who are some names that could make their way further up the list over the final stretch of the season? 

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the fourth player on the list (+600), with Dak Prescott (+850) and then running back Christian McCaffrey (=1600) is next.  No running back has ever won the NFL MVP Award. 

But is there a longer shot that is worth playing?

Yes. 

Texas quarterback C.J Stroud was +2500 a few weeks ago and is now at +1800 at DraftKings sportsbook in New Jersey.  Stroud has a favorable schedule and a chance to lead the Texans into the playoffs, something that was a longshot at the start of the season. Stroud will get the chance to make another move in a key division game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If I am making a bet for value in the NFL MVP race right now, I am putting my money on Stroud. With no clear favorite, if he keeps this level of play up and the Texans make the playoffs (I think they will), that will be the best story on the board, and the best value. 

Currently he is fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,962) with 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. 

If you want to win a small amount of money, Hurts (+250) and the Eagles should be the safest bet if you are looking at the best player on the best team theory. His numbers don’t scream MVP, but he is the favorite after being the runner-up last season. 

Mahomes and the Chiefs should keep rolling, even after their Monday Night loss to the Eagles.  Nut like Hurts, his numbers currently don’t scream MVP.   He is however, the quarterback for one of the top AFC teams and the defending Super Bowl champions.

The Eagles and Chiefs are +450 to go back-to-back as conference champions, in large part to Hurts and Mahomes. However, if you like to base the award on the best player on the best team, McCaffrey enters the mix with the 49ers at +450 as well. 

So, is it worth it taking McCaffery right now?

The books seem to think not: McCaffery is still at +1600 even as he leads the NFL with 939 yards rushing, and 11 touchdowns rushing and 389 and five touchdowns in the passing game. 

If you think he is going to be the MVP, and the 49ers are the best team, now is the time to jump on those odds, before they fall without a clear favorite at the quarterback position. 

If I am going with a real longshot, I’ll grab Stroud, a rookie who might be the best player on the most surprising story of the NFL season. 

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