How has recent Bayern Munich slump affected UEFA Champions League futures odds?
If you watched the first week of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, you will know that a few of the results were eye-openers.
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They also started to shift the futures odds to win the tournament.
Manchester City, which made its first Champions League Final in club history last May (only to lose to fellow English side Chelsea 1-0), came into the season as the favorites to win the cup. That did not change after the Group Stage, and it certainly did not after the Cityzens went on the road to Sporting Clube de Portugal and rolled to a 5-0 first leg victory.
Well, the favorite label did not change, but their odds certainly did: City is now +250 to win the Champions League with sports books, which is pretty crazy considering the teams still left in the competition.
The two teams behind the Cityzens switched spots, as both saw their odds change after interesting results Wednesday.
Liverpool went to Milan and beat the defending Serie A champions Internazionale 2-0, to take a commanding lead in the tie. With that overwhelming win coming back to Anfield, Liverpool has now moved up to odds +400 according to the latest offers by betting platforms to win the Champions League, and is pretty decent value at that price.
But the team that faltered at the weekend in the Bundesliga, and then again Wednesday, was Bayern Munich. The Bavarians drew 1-1 with Salzburg, and while they will still probably go through over the two-legged tie, they have not looked as good as the Premier League teams of late. The perceived weakness of the German top flight may not be helping bettors back Bayern Munich either, as it now holds the lone flag for its league in the last 16.
So, which teams could be the next ones to jump up the odds’ table? Well, the winner of the PSG Real Madrid tie (1-0 PSG after a 94’ winner from Kylian Mbappe) should end up as third choice heading into the quarterfinals: PSG is currently +650, with Real Madrid +3700, heading to Madrid in March for the second leg. If you want to talk value, Real Madrid might be the ultimate value at +3700, because its odds are going to be somewhere between +500 and +800 if it overturns the deficit and heads into the quarters.
The two other English teams (Premier League is miles ahead of the other leagues right now) also hold some value, and at least one should cruise through to the quarterfinals. Defending champions Chelsea have to head to France to face Lille, and a win should see the Blues’ odds drop (+800 now) before the second leg, much like what happened with Liverpool.
Which leaves us with Manchester United: who in the world can figure out this team? One thing is for sure, though; the Red Devils have the best to ever play in the Champions League, Cristiano Ronaldo, and a penchant for allowing a small number of goals. At +2000 and facing Atletico Madrid, could Manchester United offer the same type of value play a Real Madrid does?
Right now, I can see at least three of the English teams making the semifinals, which means the value would be on them to win the cup.
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