Well, if you've been following along with these picks, you know we haven't exactly had the start to the season we were imagining. We came in to this year riding high, after going nearly 60% on picks against the spread in 2023. This week, we aim to get back on the winning side for you guys.

Season Record: 5-9-1, 35.7 W/L%

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets, 1:00, CBS

For those who are Jets fans, it almost doesn’t feel like we’re watching the team we’ve been putting up with for countless Sundays anymore. Last Thursday against the Pats, NY looked incredible on both sides of the ball. They blitzed on 40% of Jacoby Brissett's dropbacks last week—the highest percentage of the Robert Saleh era. It turns out that when you allow your defense to play with a lead, they play better. Who would have thought? They also dominated on the offensive side of the football. Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s, at the very least, back to his 2022 form, going for over 280 yards and two touchdowns, and even moving the chains with his legs. The 40-year-old is 13-0 in 13 games when he’s off nine or more days of rest, with 295 yards per game, 32 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Denver is coming off a nice win, and their defense has looked expectedly sharp thus far, but the Jets will likely win the possession battle in this game and give rookie Bo Nix fits at MetLife.

PICK: Jets -7.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers, 1:00, FOX

After benching former number one overall selection Bryce Young, the Panthers turned what many thought would be impossible around on offense. Andy Dalton became the first QB this year to throw for over 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in a game. The Bengals, on the other hand, have taken their usual early-season woes in the Joe Burrow era to a brand-new level. They looked lost on the defensive side of the ball last week, giving up 38 points at home to rookie Jayden Daniels. This game reminds me very clearly of their Week 3 matchup last year against the Arizona Cardinals and Josh Dobbs. Cincinnati, in a gotta-have-it game against what we still believe to be one of the worst teams in the league, seems like the play here. If Cincy has already hurt you this season, as they have me, I wouldn’t blame you for wanting to see it first.

PICK: Bengals -5

New England Patriots @ San Fransisco 49ers, 4:05, FOX

Either my Jets are that good, or the Patriots are finally becoming the team we had anticipated they’d be before the start of the season. They couldn’t stop a thing last week on the offensive line and now travel to take on one of the strongest front sevens in football—in San Francisco. San Fran gets Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back this week, and despite still missing RB Christian McCaffrey, I envision them leaning on Jordan Mason early in this game and taking a commanding lead. Mason has filled in seamlessly for the ailing CMC, ranking second in the league in rushing thus far, with 4.8 YPC. I mentioned on the show that this was my favorite pick of the week, predicting a twenty-eight point Niners victory.

PICK: 49ers -10.5 (Pick made with Thursday lines)

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 (SNF), NBC

The Bills have looked like the best team in the NFL over the first three weeks of the season. It turns out Josh Allen may not be overrated. He’s accounted for nine touchdowns and just one turnover so far, and has looked the cleanest we’ve ever seen him. I really noticed this on a play Buffalo had in the second quarter of the Jags game on Monday: Allen was scanning, looking, stepping up, and took the easy check-down to his running back, James Cook. It felt like a play where he would usually chuck it up and see what happens, but he uncharacteristically took the safest option. An offseason with Joe Brady as OC has done him wonders. The Ravens, on the other hand, haven’t proven that they can play with a lead and have started every game but last week slow out of the gate. You do that against Buffalo, and you’re dead. I’ll take the best team in the league on the road here as a dog.

PICK: Bills +2.5 (Pick made with Thursday lines)

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions, 8:15 (MNF), ABC

How about these Seattle Seahawks through three weeks of the season? They’ve gone up against tough tasks, squaring off against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett... and Skylar Thompson. Yes, they’ve looked impressive, but I feel we need to pump the brakes on what Seattle is as a team. Detroit, on the other hand, shut down Kyler Murray and the Cardinals just a week after they hung 41 points on their divisional rival Rams. While Jared Goff has been what’s holding this offense back, I expect the best version of him this Monday night. At home as a Lion, Goff averages 264 passing yards per game along with two touchdowns while completing 68% of his throws. Additionally, the tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has been virtually unstoppable thus far. I’ll take the Lions to slow down the Seahawks hype in this Week 4 bout.

PICK: Lions -3.5 (Pick made with Thursday lines)

BONUS PLAYER PROPS

Garrett Wilson O 4.5 receptions vs. Denver

Lowest we'll see this number all season
Could look to establish his presence early with slow start
Jets will likely win possession battle

Mike Evans O 4.5 receptions vs. Philadelphia

Favorable matchup
Off a one catch week
Likely will emphasize getting him going early

Joe Burrow O 1.5 Passing TD's at Carolina

Hit this number in 7/8 last fully played games
Favorable matchup with lackluster Carolina secondary
Will lean on the pass with run game struggling

Marvin Harrison Jr. O 5.5 receptions vs. Washington

No Trey McBride, out with a concussion
Commanders among worst secondaries in football
Harrison still yet to have the high reception game, but has looked extremely impressive

Amon-Ra St. Brown O 6.5 receptions vs. Seattle