Five Best Bets in Our Week 7 Edition of ‘Locks of the Week,’ Plus Bonus Player Prop Selections
We're back after our first clean sweep on the show in the 2024 NFL season. Let's hope that this week will be more of the same.
Season Record: 13-16-1, .448 W/L%
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings, 1:00, FOX
Everything was working for the Lions in Jerry World; The Lions put up 47 points of offense, and Jared Goff now has completed 82% of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception over the past three games. Usually, I have a rule of not taking the team that is coming off what will in all likelihood be their best performance of the entire season, but I simply can't resist here.
Jared Goff has been an incredible quarterback in a dome setting over the past year, and he gets another opportunity here today. The Vikings will certainly scheme some pressure up, but if there's one group to handle that this season, it's this Detroit Lions team. The Vikings are allowing 263 pass yards a game through five games, a number Goff can easily exceed this afternoon. Give me the Lions to take their fourth straight in Minnesota.
PICK: Lions +2 (Pick made with Wednesday line)
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00, CBS
In yet another game that would have been worthy of a primetime slot this week, we get the first ever matchup between Jordan Love and second year quarterback C.J. Stroud. To address a storyline going into this one that really hasn't been talked about enough this season; this Packers defense. With the additions of Xavier McKinney and the rookie class, this defense has allowed just 20.2 points a game, and 110 yards on the ground per contest. Both rank top ten in all of football.
Jordan Love was absolutely dealing last week, and has thrown ten touchdowns in his last three games this year. The Packers are getting healthier on offense, while the Texans are missing several key pieces across their defense. Lay the points with Jordan Love and the home team in this spot.
PICK: Packers -3
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders, 4:05, CBS
How about the number two overall pick through six games of his young career? Jayden Daniels has proven that he was more than capable of stepping in and making an immediate impact for this Washington franchise that has been searching for any kind of consistency at the quarterback position since Kirk Cousins departed in 2018.
The Panthers are now 1-5 ATS in 2024, losing by an average of 20.8 points in the five they've dropped this season. Carolina hasn't been able to generate any kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season, and are the only team in football who is allowing scoring drives on more than half (52.9%) of their defensive drives. Expect Jayden Daniels and this high flying Commanders offense to put up 28+ points here at home against a reeling Panthers side.
PICK: Commanders -8 (Pick made with Wednesday line)
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers, 4:25, FOX
Here it is, the rematch that we as football fans have been waiting for since Mecole Hardman put the seal on the 2023 NFL season with an overtime touchdown in last year's Super Bowl. The Chiefs seem to be more reminiscent of the Patriots dynasty every week. A team that just keeps finding ways to win, and if you bet against them, a team that you don't want to see have the football with less than two minutes to go.
Brock Purdy has had an impressive 2024 campaign thus far, aside from their week five loss to the Cardinals. He's dealt with injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Trent Williams. All this while dealing with his number one receiver last season Brandon Aiyuk not reporting till September. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries all over the offensive side of the ball, with Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isaiah Pacheco all missing for this contest. Expect the Niners defensive front to push around these Chiefs outside tackles en route to their first win against Kansas City since 2014.
PICK: 49ers -1.5 (Pick made with Wednesday line)
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 (SNF), NBC
No shortage of storylines to talk about going into this one, so let's knock them out one by one here. Firstly, the Steelers have officially made the change at QB1, declaring Russell Wilson the starter for this one. My take, much like many others, I don't quite understand this move. You're 4-2 with Fields as the starter, and he's clearly well respected in that locker room. Oh well. The Jets in my mind are dealt an easier hand with Russ, a player who really can't move like he used to be able to in the pocket. The Steelers are also missing their two best offensive linemen for this contest, guard Nate Herbig, and center Zach Frazier.
The Jets offense acquires a massive weapon in former, and now current teammate of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, in Davante Adams. The Jets went just 1/4 in the red zone on Monday, missing two short field goal attempts as well. Point being, don't let the 20 points they put up be a measuring stick of how they actually performed. Expect this Jets defense to dominate early, as Rodgers welcomes back an old friend on the other side of the ball.
PICK: Jets -2
BONUS PLAYER PROPS
Season Record: 17-13
Amon-Ra St. Brown O 6.5 Recs at Minnesota
- Hit this in last two vs MIN
- Averages 8 rec per game in 6 games vs MIN in his career
- Goff incredibly efficient when playing in a dome
Jared Goff O 1.5 Pass TD's
- Hit this number in three straight
- High point total- 50.5 for this game
Calvin Ridley O 3.5 Recs at Buffalo
- Publicly complained about limited role/targets in the offense
- Likely to be chasing points, positive game script for Ridley
Jordan Love O 1.5 Pass TD's vs Houston
- Hit this number in 14 of last 15 contests
- Packers receiving options fully healthy
Jordan Mason O 73.5 rush+rec yards vs Kansas City
- Hit this number in all six contests this season
- Line is expecting lower handle of touches
- Can expect this number to be hit even if Mason is under twenty touches
All odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck in Week 7!