NFL conference championship odds: which team will come out of AFC into Super Bowl LVI
Have you had a chance to watch any of the 2021 National Football League season?
Of course you have: you live in America.
If you are a casual observer of the NFL, or someone who bets religiously on the games each week, one thing has been the same.
No one knows what is going to happen in this wacky season.
Week 9 was especially topsy-turvy, with some head-scratching results. How can you account for the current favorite (Buffalo) to win the Super Bowl (and the AFC) scoring just six points in a 9-6 loss to a team (Jacksonville) that had lost 21 of its last 22 games? Or what about the New York Giants beating the Las Vegas Raiders?
How about the start of Week 10, with Baltimore losing 22-10 to a formerly 2-7 Dolphins team that was a disaster on and off the field?
Is this a sign of the new NFL, when parity really has been (somewhat) achieved, or is it just a week of blips in a long season for a bunch of good teams that are flawed?
Trying to figure out who is going to come out of the AFC with eight weeks left in the season might be a futile effort: so many things can change over the next two months.
But I am going to try anyway. Here are the current odds to win the conference.
Odds to win AFC
Buffalo Bills, +233
Kansas City Chiefs, +550
Tennessee Titans, +550
Baltimore Ravens, +600
LA Chargers, +1100
Cleveland Browns, +1400
New England Patriots, +1700
Which team(s) should I back?
Everyone, including all of the sports books, still has the Buffalo Bills as comprehensive favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI, despite their poor play at times of late.
Of course, even at odds of +233, the Bills offer value. But I think you can get better value backing better teams than Buffalo now, two months before the playoffs start.
Tennessee has the best record in the AFC heading into Week 10, and are still priced at or below the two-time defending champion Chiefs. One team to watch here, though (and worth getting before they go on a run over the last eight weeks) are the Chargers. Los Angeles has a talented quarterback, is getting healthy, and could end up as a very high seed in the playoffs. At 11-1, they are worth some money.
Is there any team that could make a dramatic move in the odds over the last two months?
Well, the Chargers definitely can. Their schedule is very manageable, and LA could get some momentum going into the playoffs. I can’t imagine you are going to get them at better odds than you will right now at +1100 with Caesars Sportsbook.
How about the Titans? They play the Texans twice, the Jags once, the Dolphins, and could see the path to the Super Bowl run through Tennessee. Once again, I don’t believe you are going to get better odds than you are going to right now at +550. If the Titans run the table, those odds could drop dramatically.