The first NFL Sunday of the 2024 season is finally upon us, and that can only mean one thing: it’s time to make some money. Last season, with five picks each week over 16 weeks, we achieved a record of 43-34-3 (55.8%). We delivered solid value last year, but this season, we aim to excel even further. Without further ado, here are my five favorite picks against the spread for Week 1 of the NFL season, along with an additional five bonus player prop bets.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons, 1:00, FOX

The two teams in this matchup underwent markedly different offseasons. The Falcons have addressed a critical need by bringing in Kirk Cousins as their new quarterback, while also concluding the Arthur Smith era, with Smith now coaching on the opposite sideline. In contrast, the Steelers are turning to former Bears first-round pick Justin Fields under center, following a late-week injury to Russell Wilson. The Steelers offensive line struggled mightily during the preseason, and they will be further compromised by the absence of their top interior linemen, Nate Herbig. The Falcons appear poised to make a significant leap forward, whereas the prevailing sentiment on the Steelers suggests a regression from their ten win performance in the 2023 season. With an overhauled offense, the Falcons are set to present a formidable challenge this year, boasting elite talent across the field. Expect them to start the season strong, winning and covering the spread against a Steelers team battling with numerous uncertainties in their opening game.

PICK: Falcons -3.5

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints, 1:00, FOX

In what is likely one of the less captivating matchups of the opening week, the Panthers aim to rebound from a disastrous 2023 season. Having been the league’s worst team last year, Carolina is poised for a fresh start with new additions on both sides of the ball. Under the guidance of new head coach Dave Canales—who previously orchestrated Baker Mayfield’s best professional season—expect the Panthers to showcase a new look. Conversely, the Saints are introducing three new starters on their offensive line and are led by Dennis Allen, one of the less successful head coaches in NFL history. Given the circumstances, the Saints should not be laying 4 points against their divisional rival. Expect Bryce Young and the Panthers to demonstrate significant improvement this season, beginning with a strong showing on the road in the season opener.

PICK: Panthers +4

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks, 4:05, CBS

Both of these teams have undergone significant transformations since early March. Bo Nix will face a formidable challenge in his first NFL start, traveling to take on what we can expect to be a well-coached Seattle defense. The rookie will have his work cut out for him, contending with a less than stellar supporting cast against Seattle's standout secondary. Expect Seattle to establish their dominance early with Kenneth Walker, who will be featured in my top props of the week. Denver, who allowed a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry in 2023, will likely struggle to contain Seattle’s potent run game. Anticipate the Seahawks to assert their dominance and cruise to a comfortable double digit victory at home.

PICK: Seahawks -6

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05, CBS

I will happily admit that the Chargers burned me last season. However, the addition of Jim Harbaugh, freshly crowned national champion with the Michigan Wolverines and a coach of elite stature at any level, is a game-changer. For the opening week of the NFL season, I prefer to focus not just on last year’s performance, but on the anticipated trajectory that we can expect for the current season. If this matchup occurred in, say, Week 10, would the Chargers still be merely three-point favorites against a Raiders team with a first-year head coach and a journeyman quarterback, facing off against one of the premier head coach-quarterback duos in football? Probably not. Jim Harbaugh has a proven track record of revitalizing teams, and he is poised to do just that with the Chargers this season. I expect the Chargers to start the year with exceptional momentum, and to feature in plenty of these articles in the following weeks.

PICK: Chargers -3

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns, 4:25, FOX

We have to pick America's game of the week, right? The Cowboys enter the 2024 season amidst a tumultuous offseason, having yet again delivered another year of familiar results. Since 2021, they have emerged as the top regular-season team, securing 12 wins in three consecutive years. Conversely, Cleveland heads into this matchup still missing Nick Chubb in the backfield, and facing lingering questions about Deshaun Watson's ability as the quarterback of the team. However, Cleveland has a notable advantage: Dak Prescott's performance is markedly different when playing on the road compared to at home. Last season, Prescott posted a 4-5 record on the road, averaging just 227 passing yards per game and 14 touchdowns. Additionally, Dallas enters the season with one of the least talented backfields in the league. They will face a pass defense that excelled in 2023, allowing only 185 yards per game through the air and boasting a league-best 57.4% completion percentage. Expect the Browns to effectively neutralize what should be a less dynamic offense for Dallas compared to last season.

PICK: Browns -2.5

BONUS PLAYER PROP BETS

Bijan Robinson O 63.5 Rushing yards vs. Steelers

Expect anywhere from 18-22 carries with positive game script
Cousins off Achilles injury in a new offense, they'll lean on the run early on
Will likely win the possession battle in this game, equalling more work for Robinson