It was a disastrous first three weeks for this article. Since Week 4, we’ve hit 55% of our selections and are an even .500 on the 2024 campaign. Before we get into this week's picks, I'd like to thank anyone who tuned into my 'Locks of the Week' segment over the past two years. I'm happy to report that over 25 segments, we accumulated an all-time record of 44-30-1 (59.5%) against the spread. Now, my five best bets against the spread for Week 12 of NFL action.

Season Record: 27-27-1, .500 W/L%

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts, 1:00, FOX

If there’s one thing the Detroit Lions consistently excel at, it’s dominating teams outside their competitive tier. Detroit has now won eight straight games, covering the spread in seven of them. Three of those victories have come by 38 or more points, including last week’s 52-6 demolition of the Jaguars.

The Colts, meanwhile, have struggled defensively all season. They rank 26th in pass defense and 28th in run defense heading into this matchup. If you’re considering betting on the Colts based on their offensive performance against the Jets last week, think again. This Colts defense isn’t equipped to handle one of the most explosive offenses the NFL has ever seen. Expect the Lions to take an early lead, and secure a two-score victory at Lucas Oil Stadium.

PICK: Lions -7.5

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05, CBS

When these teams last met in Week 5, the Broncos took control after the first quarter, cruising to a 34-18 victory. The Raiders did lead 10-0 early, but haven't won a game since late September, currently holding the longest active losing streak in the NFL.

The Raiders have covered the spread in two of their last three games at Allegiant Stadium, including a backdoor cover against the Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. With a spread like this in a divisional matchup, and Denver coming off their most impressive win of the season—trouncing the Falcons 38-6—I'm leaning toward the home dog in this spot. Even if this game is handily won by the Broncos, Gardner Minshew and the Raiders have shown over the past two seasons that they can cover a big number as the underdog. Additionally, several trends work in the Raiders' favor. The Broncos have lost their last six games as road favorites against AFC West opponents, and have failed to cover the spread in their last six games as favorites on the West Coast. Take Vegas at home.

PICK: Raiders +6

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks, 4:25, FOX

Feel free to evaluate these teams however you like, but by late November, there should be some guiding principles. The Cardinals have turned things around in 2024 after a 2023 season plagued by injuries. This year, their identity is clear: they’re committed to running the ball with James Conner, and using Kyler Murray's skillset in the most efficient manner possible. Defensively, they've made significant strides, ranking as a top-12 scoring defense under Head Coach Jonathan Gannon.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, are harder to pin down. At times, their defense looks dominant, while at others, it gets overpowered. Their run game can be effective, but they often abandon it when game scripts don’t go their way. Geno Smith averages 37.4 pass attempts per game, ranking third in the NFL. Meanwhile, Seattle’s famed "12th Man" home-field advantage has seemed less impactful in recent years. With Arizona coming off a bye and riding a four-game winning streak, don’t hesitate to back the Cardinals.

PICK: Cardinals +1

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers, 4:25, FOX

We're going ahead and taking all three games in the late afternoon slate. On Friday, the 49ers ruled out QB Brock Purdy, and star edge rusher Nick Bosa. They are also still without one of their top two corners in Charvarius Ward. It'll be Brandon Allen for the Niners under center today, who makes his first NFL start since 2021 with the Bengals. In nine games as a starter, Allen is 2-7 with 10 TDs, 6 INTs, and a completion rate of just under 57%.

On the Green Bay side, this is a defense that's quietly much improved since 2023. Since October, they’ve given up just 20.7 points per contest, which would rank inside the top ten in 2024. Jordan Love has been shaky, and at times prone to turning the ball over. However, with no Nick Bosa for this Niners squad, they could have a lot of trouble getting pressure on Love, allowing him to pick apart this defense. Take the Pack by a touchdown at home.

PICK: Packers -5.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 (MNF), ESPN

Does this have all the makings of a classic Monday Night Football showdown or what? Both teams sit atop the AFC Wild Card race and have delivered plenty of excitement this season. Plus, it’s Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh—round three and their first meeting since Super Bowl XLVII in 2013, where John Harbaugh and the Ravens came out on top. John is 2-0 against Jim.

Can Jim turn the tide? This certainly seems like a great opportunity to do so. While some may argue the Ravens are the better team, the Chargers have completely transformed from last season. Wouldn’t you know it? Justin Herbert, with a strong defense, solid offensive line, and competent coaching, is suddenly a winning quarterback. Unbelievable! The Chargers lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 points per game—over two points better than the second-place Broncos. The Ravens have been susceptible to explosives this season, something that the Chargers had no problem generating in their thrilling win over the Bengals last week. Trust the Chargers elite defense, improved coaching, and Herbert’s playmaking to shine on Monday night.

PICK: Chargers +2.5