I'll keep the intro short and sweet this week. This was the hardest time I've had all season narrowing this article down to just five picks. Here are my five favorite bets for Week 11 of NFL action.

Season Record: 23-26-1, .469 W/L%

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions, 1:00, CBS

It took eleven weeks, but the first two touchdown spread in the 2024 season goes to the Detroit Lions. Detroit is off their ugliest game of the season, with QB Jared Goff tossing five, yes five interceptions, at NRG Stadium against the Texans. Despite that, the Lions somehow pulled out a win. Prior to that game, Goff had thrown just 24 incompletions in the previous five games, with the offense scoring 28 touchdowns in that same timespan.

The Jaguars on the other hand, are simply playing for nothing in Week 11. They have a coach in Doug Pederson, who seems like a lamb to the slaughter in this matchup. The Jags simply don't have any matchups that they can take advantage of in this one. Mac Jones will start again after putting up just 7 points at home against the Vikings last week. The Lions should run away with this one, easily dispatching the depleted Jacksonville squad.

PICK: Lions -14 (Pick made with Thursday line)

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots, 1:00, FOX

For this game, I'm applying a simple principle that usually comes around in waves this time of the year. When you look at the betting slate, think to yourself: Who can I buy at their lowest, and who should I be selling high? It's rare that you get two of the teams matching up. The Rams are coming off a primetime loss, which will always have a significant impact on the lines. The Patriots, on the other hand are fresh off a beatdown of the Chicago Bears, holding Caleb Williams and the offense to just three points all day.

This seems like the time to take Los Angeles. Matthew Stafford with a healthy Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua is something that I usually don't advise betting against. The Rams have covered in nine of their last eleven as road favorites following a loss, and New England has covered just twice in their last eight games against NFC opponents.

PICK: Rams -4.5 (Pick made with Thursday line)

Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos, 4:05, FOX

This is yet another example of buying teams at a lower point at this stage in the season. This line makes it seem as if the Broncos went to Arrowhead and dominated the Chiefs, where in reality, they came as close as you can to beating them. Even still, the offense has been struggling mightily in recent weeks, putting up just 24 points in their previous two matchups.

The Atlanta Falcons have won three of their four games on the road this season, averaging 27 points per contest. The Falcons have been one of the more consistently explosive offenses this season, with Cousins placing third in the league in passing yards, and fourth in passing TDs. Cousins and this offense will have their hands full with the Denver defense, but if Atlanta were to get out to an early lead, I struggle to see how Bo Nix and the Broncos offense could mount a comeback. Give me the Falcons as dogs in this spot.

PICK: Falcons +2

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills, 4:25, CBS

Here we go again. One thing I will say about this game before I even get into my pick, being on either side of this game and losing will make you feel like you should never bet again. If KC wins, of course they did, they've won 15 straight and have been dominant on defense. If Buffalo wins, people fell for taking KC as an underdog against a Buffalo team that they beat the last time they met.

Alright, enough of that pointless thought process, let's use what we know. Kansas City has truly found a way to win in every way imaginable throughout their 15 game streak, last week being by way of the special teams. The Bills also have a little streak of their own going, winning six straight heading into this one. You can argue the same thing can be said about the 2024 Bills. Allen had a passer rating of 60.6, and threw two interceptions and no touchdowns, and the Bills dominated the Colts on the road. When one phase of the game is off, the others will pick it up. The Bills defense is getting healthier, and has been impressive all season long, winning 5 of the 10 AFC offensive player of the week awards thus far. I can't believe I'm about to do this again... GIMME THE BILLS.

PICK: Bills -2.5 (Pick made with Thursday line)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 (SNF), NBC/Peacock

I mentioned it earlier this week on air, and I'll say it again now: The Los Angeles Chargers have looked like the team closest to the Kansas City Chiefs so far this season—at least in terms of identity as a football team. The Chargers of 2024 are something that we haven't seen since the arrival of Justin Herbert in 2020. They are well coached, they're balanced on offense, and they have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Cincinnati on the other hand is the opposite of a balanced football team. While it is scary to bet against the combination of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase after the kind of game they played last Thursday, I think LA is well equipped to at least subdue them to the point of not breaking the game open. Cincinnati hasn't been able to stop much of anything on defense this year, and I expect the Chargers to lean on the run game to keep their offense off the field. Take the Chargers at home here.

PICK: Chargers -1.5