We're back with our Week 10 picks, and once again, we have early games on the slate. It may not be one worth waking up for, but we can find some value in this Daniel Jones vs. Bryce Young showdown. Let's get back to winning ways here in Week 10.

Season Record: 21-23-1, .477 W/L%

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers, 9:30 AM (Germany), NFL Network/NFL+

Look, before I even get into breaking down this game, I want to let it be known that you have zero obligation to wake up to see this one. In the fourth NFL game of all time in Germany, the country will be treated to two 2-7 ball clubs with quarterbacks who have both struggled mightily in 2024. This spread may have been surprising to some, but there is a play to be had here.

The Giants have made it clear that Daniel Jones will be under center for the remainder of the season, despite outcry from myself, and the fanbase. If there is a time where we see Jones and this unit beat up a defense, it'll be this Sunday. The Panthers are bottom five in several meaningful defensive rating categories, and they don't exactly make up for it on the other side of the ball. The best unit in this football game is this Giants defensive line, who have a league high 35 sacks through half the NFL season. New York should be able to take advantage of this weak Panthers offensive line, and a quarterback who has had documented struggles while under pressure. Give me the G-Men by two scores in Munich.

PICK: Giants -6.5 (Pick made with Thursday line)

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts, 1:00, CBS

The Colts made headlines throughout Week 9, as they turned to 39 year old QB Joe Flacco in favor of their 2023 first round pick Anthony Richardson. Flacco has been very solid in relief, winning two of four games while having a 7-2 TD-INT ratio. The Colts now welcome a Bills team who have won four straight, and will go into this one as public darlings, garnering 93% of the moneyline bets, and 84% of the spread bets on DraftKings.

We like to dig around when a line on a game like this may look fishy, and we found plenty of subject material:

The Bills have lost seven of their eight previous November road games against AFC South opponents.
The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC East opponents.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games in November.

Another thing in Indy's favor: The addition of DeForest Buckner on the defensive line. Along with Grover Stewart, this group has wreaked havoc over the past two weeks, a trend we should expect to see continue on Sunday. If the Colts can establish the run with Jonathon Taylor early, limit turnovers, and control the clock against Buffalo, they should cover this number, and perhaps win the game outright.

PICK: Colts +4 (Pick made with Thursday line)

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00, FOX

The Vikings have simply not resembled the team that they were in the first five weeks of the season, dropping two out of their last three heading into this one. Jacksonville on the other hand, has been struggling consistently throughout this 2024 season. They now will be forced to the former 2022 first round pick, Mac Jones at quarterback, after Trevor Lawrence suffered a shoulder injury in Week 9.

While I am usually hesitant to take a big favorite on the road, this seems like the time to do so. This line moved from 4.5 to 7 with the Trevor Lawrence news, but frankly I think Vegas has this one wrong. This offense has looked anemic at times, even with Lawrence at the helm, and you can't bank on Mac Jones making his Jags debut here. The Vikings should have their way with one of the leagues worst defenses, and should generate more than enough pressure to make Mac uncomfortable. Minnesota wins this road date by two scores.

PICK: Vikings -7

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05, FOX

The Titans will have a different look on offense this week, with Will Levis set to make his return here in week ten. What will this change for Tennessee? Not much. This is an offense that has struggled to show any kind of level of consistency this year, and they now get a date with the NFL's number one scoring defense.

The Chargers have proven time and time again that they are an entirely different team with Jim Harbaugh as the head coach. LA used to give me nightmares in terms of betting on their side in recent years, but it feels like this year we can finally trust them, especially as a loftier favorite. The Titans are off of an overtime win against New England, but over their last eight games off of a victory, they have failed to cover the spread in all of them. This one may be low scoring, but Justin Herbert has found his groove over the last two weeks, with over 560 yards and 4 touchdowns. Take the Chargers to rout the Titans in this spot.

PICK: Chargers -7.5

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans, 8:20 (SNF), NBC/Peacock

These Detroit Lions have looked flawless on offense over the past five weeks. They've scored 28 offensive touchdowns, while Jared Goff over the same time span has just 24 incompletions. Unsurprisingly, the Lions have been the public's darling in week ten, as DraftKings is handling 91% of the moneyline bets, and 87% of the spread bets on the Detroit Lions.

So why bet on Houston off an ugly loss to the Jets? The Texans go into this one off of ten days rest, or as the players refer to it as 'the mini bye.' Houston also could be getting their star wideout Nico Collins back for this one, who led the league in yards prior to his injury. Houston has also won each of their last nine games following a loss. While they have definitely had their problems protecting Stroud, the Lions have generated just one sack over the past two weeks. We're staying on the sharp side here, with Houston getting more than a field goal at home.

PICK: Texans +3.5 (Pick made with Thursday line)