We were as close as we could get to a perfect slip in Week 8 of NFL action, with the Raiders getting the brutal backdoor cover at home against Mahomes and the Chiefs. I've nailed seven of my last nine picks on 'Locks of the Week', which airs every Thursday at 4:30 on our station. After a brutal start to the season, we look to finally get over the .500 mark this week.

Season Record: 19-20-1, .487 W/L%

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens, 1:00, CBS

As we reach the midway point of the season, we begin to find out which teams truly belong in the picture, versus the teams that may have us fooled throughout eight games. After a sketchy week from Lamar Jackson, he will be active as he nurses back, and knee injuries going into this one. He is putting on yet another MVP level campaign in 2024, and now gets a home date with a surging Denver Broncos defense. For Baltimore in 11/19 last wins dating back to last year, they have covered this number.
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks like Bo Nix facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more, have won just 18 games, going 18-114 SU and 50-78-4 ATS (39.1%).The Ravens have also covered the spread in each of their last six games at M&T Bank Stadium following a Division loss. Expect Baltimore to get off to a quick start back at home and overwhelm this Denver team.

PICK: Ravens -8 (Pick made with Thursday line)

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers, 1:00, CBS

Luckily for us, you aren't required to watch every single game you bet on. The Saints are losers of six straight games, after starting the season looking like the best offense in all of football. They'll get Derek Carr back under center in this game, facing a Panthers defense that hasn't looked good in any phase this year.

Panthers Defensive Ranks in 2024:

Defense yards average: 387.5, ranking 31st in the NFL
Points against per game: 33.9, ranking 32nd in the NFL
Total yards against per game: 387.50, ranking 31st in the NFL
Passing yards against per game: 232.88, ranking 25th in the NFL
Rushing yards against per game: 154.63, ranking 32nd in the NFL

It'll be Bryce Young under center for Carolina, who is now down to 5-14-1 ATS in 20 starts in his NFL career. Take the Saints to run away with this one.

PICK: Saints -7 (Pick made with Thursday line)

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons, 1:00, FOX

The Dallas Cowboys have been as dysfunctional as I can remember through their first seven games this season, unable to stop the run on defense, and not as explosive on offense with the lack of weapons outside of Ceedee Lamb. Atlanta seems to be settling in with Kirk Cousins under center, after an adjustment period after the Achilles injury, and new scenery.

People seem to be leaning towards the Atlanta side in this one, but I think there's more we need to consider. The Falcons have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.5% of their passes, and have only gotten to the quarterback for six sacks this season, which ranks dead last in football. This Cowboys offense, giving Dak Prescott time to throw, and Rico Dowdle back in the starting lineup, could look a whole lot better this week. The season isn't over yet for this Dallas team, and it all starts this week.

PICK: Cowboys +3 (Pick made with Thursday line)

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers, 4:25, FOX

In what might be the most compelling game of the week, the Detroit Lions will travel to
Lambeau Field for their first meeting with the Packers this season. The Lions have had video game numbers in their last five games on offense, scoring 24 touchdowns, with QB Jared Goff just having 20 incompletions.

The Lions have had an incredibly light schedule this year, in terms of game environments. They play their first game outdoors in Week 9, and the weather will absolutely be a factor today. It'll be raining all throughout this game, and Jared Goff historically has not been nearly as efficient as a road quarterback. Goff is 13-12-1 on the road straight up, averaging just 1.1 passing touchdowns a game. This Green Bay defense has been severely underrated thus far, and this'll be a tall task for this Lions team. Give me the Pack.

PICK: Packers +2.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 (SNF), NBC/Peacock

The Colts have made major headlines throughout this week, benching their 2023 first round pick Anthony Richardson in favor of 39 year old veteran Joe Flacco. The Vikings have dropped two straight, and are looking to get right against this Indy team.

In this game, I think buying the dip on this Minnesota team that we can safely say is legitimate through seven games. The Vikings will be getting tight end T.J. Hockenson back for this one, adding yet another weapon to this dangerous offense. The Vikings have done an excellent job at disguising their coverages and getting after quarterbacks this season, and with Joe Flacco in the lineup, expect them to struggle handling this group. Take the Vikings to win this one by a touchdown.

PICK: Vikings -5